NIFTY ANALYSIS

Nifty found support at 6130 levels (CLICK HERE) and zoomed upto 6317 - retracing 61.8% of the fall from 6415 - 6129.9. Holding 6200 - 6230 the upmove would continue.

The Current week HEMA and Day Hema is around 6290-6300. Today's EOD & End of Week close above 6300- would help nifty to move towards 6400+.

TRADE	STOPLOSS	REASON
bought @ 6200 NS on 18/12	EOD close below 6280 NS	Week HEMA/Day HEMA

NIFTY ANALYSIS

Nifty closed below 50 DMA and all other Day parameters yesterday.

DAY VALUES
HIGH	6191	5 EMA	6187
LOW	6133	10 EMA	6203
CLOSE	6139	5 DMA	6201
HI EMA	6227	10 DMA	6237
LEMA	6177	50DMA	6142

Hour TF is Highly Oversold exhibiting + ve Divergence.

NIFTY ANALYSIS

Nifty supported at 6150 levels. Holding 6145 - a pullback rally can be expected.

DAY VALUES
HIGH	6183	5 EMA	6211
LOW	6146	10 EMA	6217
CLOSE	6155	5 DMA	6240
HI EMA	6246	10 DMA	6243
LEMA	6198	34 Hr MA	6243

There are cluster of resistances at 6220 - 6240 by way of Moving averages.
The retracements for 6415-6145 are as follows:

NIFTY ANALYSIS

Nifty has opened with a gap down today and reached 50% of the retracement of 5973-6415. This is also supported by channel in Hour chart and Trendline in Day Charts. Weekly channel has supports upto 6155-60 - Week 10SMA.

Below 5185-5170 - The Bearish Wolfe wave will show its' dominance.

As per Hour charts a Reciprocal ABCD pattern is formed which Holding 6170-6150  - would give a bounce to the fall from 6415 - 6185.

23.60%	38.20%	44.70%	50.00%	61.80%	70.70%	78.60%
6239.28	6272.86	6287.81	6300.00	6327.14	6347.61	6365.78

Intraday update NIfty - 2.00pm

The Bullish Rising three Candle pattern is invalid due to the low at 6253.

NIFTY ANALYSIS

Nifty has closed below the Day HEMA but above all other parameters. As mentioned earlier, yesterday from Day HEMA - it went down near Day LEMA and again back to day HEMA. - this trading range between Day HEMA and DAY LEMA - a very narrow range of 40 points must be resolved before any substantial move.

With the present scenario - it would be BUY near DAY LEMA @ +- 20 points SL OR sell NEAR DAY HEMA +-20 points SL.

Factors to be considered for a Buy:
1. Day/Hour Channel support @ 6275-70 - near DAYLEMA
2. Rising Three Candle Pattern - invalid below 6270.
3. Weekly TF is in buy mode

Factors to be considered for a sell:
1. EOD closed below DAY HEMA

NIFTY ANALYSIS

INTRADAY UPDATE 2.45 PM:

The three candles formed after the huge gapup on Monday - can be considered as  Rising Three Methods Candle pattern - if the EOD closing is above 6275 - which is highly bullish.
 

It is a  bullish continuation pattern in which a long white body - (in this case the huge gap up opening) - is followed by three small body days, each fully contained  within the range of the high and low of the first day. The fifth day closes at a new high.

 

TRADE	STOPLOSS	REASON
Aggressive - Sold @ 6310NS		Day HEMA/Hour channel breakdown
Booked at 6280NS		Day channel Bottom/Day LEMA

Nifty has traded between Day HEMA and Day LEMA.
If EOD close is below Day LEMA, then a positional short can be initiated.
TRADE BOOKED AT 6285NS AND NOT 6280NS.

NIFTY ANALYSIS:
Nifty managed to close above the Day HEMA - but lacks in momentum.

NIFTY ANALYSIS

Intraday Update: 3.00PM:

TRADE	STOPLOSS	REASON FOR Stoploss
Aggressive - Sold @ 6325NS/6360NF	Hour close above 6340	Day HEMA/Hour channel breakdown

Aggressive trade would be carried only if the EOD close is below Day HEMA - today's DHEMA - 6322.


NIFTY ANALYSIS:
Will Nifty make new highs, or is 6415 - sealed currently??? Charts gives both possibilities.

Nifty has to breakout of the Monthly Channel/weekly resistance Click Here decisively to get to new Highs.
A Bearish Wolfe wave  pattern has formed in weekly charts.

The POWER of TECHNICALS !!!! - NIFTY at New High!!!!

Nifty has made an all time high of 6415.25 today. Give it any reason - congress failure-BJP victory etc etc...., Technically Nifty was all set for new Highs - well enough to believe all events are factored in prices.

Nifty has reached the Channel top in Monthly charts:

Nifty has reached the Broadening triangle resistance in weekly charts.

Intraday Updates

Intraday Update - IV: 3.15 PM:
The EOW close is likely to be above 6230. So the aggressive longs taken is carried forward positionally.

TRADE	STOPLOSS	REASON FOR Stoploss
bought @ 6240 NS/6285NF	EOD close below 6230	Day HEMA/WeekHEMA

Intraday Update -3:

Nifty Analysis

Nifty Closed above all Hi EMA's and LEMA's except for Hour HiEMA.

DAY VALUES
HIGH	6301	5 EMA	6189
LOW	6232	5 DMA	6200
CLOSE	6241	10 DMA	6132
HI EMA	6229	20 DMA	6115
LEMA	6169	34 Hr MA	6208

NIFTY UPDATES 5 dec



INTRADAY UPDATE 2.00PM:

Nifty Analysis

Nifty closed below all HEMA's but above all LEMA's indicating sell on rises in all TF's.

DAY VALUES
HIGH	6209	5 EMA	6163
LOW	6150	5 DMA	6170
CLOSE	6161	10 DMA	6107
HI EMA	6193	20 DMA	6113
LEMA	6137	34 Hr MA	6177

Nifty also closed at the channel support, and if respected would make a swift move upto channel top at 6260-70 levels.

Similarly in Hour chart too, the channel support is evident. Channel resistance coinciding with the targets(last leg CD) of the  Bearish Crab pattern developed.

Bearish Crab Pattern
XA - 6343-5973
B- 6212 - 61.8% retr of XA
C - 5973 - above 88.6 of AB
Proj for D:
88.6% - 6184-Done
113% - 6243
127% - 6276
Extended targets -

141.40%	161.80%
6310.95	6359.70

TRADE	STOPLOSS	REASON FOR Stoploss
Bought at 6050NS on 26/11	EOD close below 6130	Day LEMA/5Week SMA
Part booked at 6180NS/6225NF on 29/11/13
Book profits at 6280 - 6290-6300levels - near day / weekly channel resistance

NIFTY ANALYSIS

Though Nifty has closed above all the Day TF parameters, it could not breakout from the resistance of 6225-6230 levels.

NIFTY ANALYSIS

Nifty reached the Weekly Channel resistance and was not able to move past it and closed just near the resistance and below week HEMA. This might put a pause in the uptrend but considering the Weekly candle - it is a MARUBOZU (CLICK HERE) - which is Highly Bullish.

DAY VALUES
HIGH	6183	5 EMA	6109
LOW	6104	5 DMA	6100
CLOSE	6176	10 DMA	6101
HI EMA	6132	20 DMA	6128
LEMA	6066	200 Hr MA	6151

Week Values
HIGH	6183
LOW	6030
CLOSE	6176
HI EMA	6198
LEMA	6007
5SMA	6137
5EMA	6108

Nifty Analysis

INTRADAY UPDATE 11.00 AM:
Nifty has reached the weekly channel resistance @ 6182.6 - current high. partbooking as mentioned earlier is done. Holding the rest with a trailing SL with Current Day HEMA and 20 DMA @ 5130 levels.

TRADE	STOPLOSS	REASON FOR Stoploss
Bought at 6050NS on 26/11	EOD close below 6130	20DMA/Day HEMA/5Week SMA
Part booked at 6180NS/6225NF

Nifty high at weekly Channel resistance

NIFTY ANALYSIS

For the past two days Nifty has held on to the support of 6030 levels-Week channel, Day LEMA and 50 DMA Support and has closed above it.
Today's Support Level - 6000-6020 - 20pts +or- Day LEma
Today's resistance Level -6140-50 - 20 DMA
Break below 6000 would be a swift fall.

NIFTY Analysis

Intraday Update at 3.15pm:
Nifty could be Bought at today's low levels 6050 -with SL 50DMA -6040 - as Nifty is likely to close above day LEMA. Today niftys' journey has been from Day HEMA to Day LEMA.

NIFTY ANALYSIS:
The low of 5970 was held and Nifty has given a bounce back of 100+ points. Now for few charts.

WEEKLY CHART:

Nifty has taken the channel support and is heading towards the channel resistance @ 6180-90 - coinciding with the CURRENT MONTH HEMA - being very crucial as this week end is month end too.

NIFTY ANALYSIS for the WEEK

Nifty has closed at a critical juncture of 5970 levels as per monthly charts. It has retraced upto the junction of support lines again. 5900 is the maximum support for further upsides. Break of 5900-5860 levels would be disastrous - as supported by Day charts

Nifty has closed the week making a double bottom at 5972 supported by Day channel.

NIFTY ANALYSIS - Bullish and Bearish patterns

Nifty found support at 5970 levels as mentioned in the earlier post and has rallied upto 6210 - 61.8% retracement - the Golden Ratio.

Currently in Day charts both Bullish and Bearish Patterns are in the making.

Bullish Scenario:

DAY Three Drive Pattern Chart:

NIFTY ANALYSIS

Monthly Chart:

Break of 5950 levels and weekly close below it would bring down Nifty to the CHANNEL support

 

NIFTY ANALYSIS

The Three Drive pattern (CLICK HERE) completed  by falling short of 40 points of its final target 161.8% 5084 - stopping at 5118. It has given quite a decent rally of around 800+ points to reach  a high of 5932.

NIFTY - AN ANALYSIS

Nifty has broken the Monthly channel support at 5300 levels desicively - a clear indication of more lower levels to follow.

As per the Monthly bullish Shark pattern -
BULLISH Shark Pattern:
O-X - 4770 - 6112
A - 5447 - 50%  RETR OFOX5441
B  - 6229 - approx -113% - 127% of XA
Proj for C:
113% - 5379.2 - DONE
127% - 5273.9
141.4% - 5165.6
161.8% - 5012

The targets for the patterns are either

TATAMOTORS ANALYSIS

Tatamotors made a high of 324.3 from the weekLEMA of 277 on the news of it's Good sales only to complete a B and now the C down has started. Currently, again it a has made a low of 278 which is a weekly support at Week LEMA. 200 DMA is at 291.8 levles also a Cluster of resitances at 289-291 levels by way of 13,50,55,100 and 200 DMA.

A consolidation or a trading range between 278 - 291 in on and break down would be severe.

Week Chart:

A Symetrical triangle is formed by the Long Term Trendline and the resisting Trendline.  Breakdown of 278 - weekLema and Long term Trendline would initially bring down to 265 levels - Contracting triangle. Break down of Contracting Triangle would drag down near 250 levels.

This view is supported by the Wolfe Wave formed in Day Charts.

WOLFE WAVE CHART:

 

If the Point 4 is considered at 4.a i.e 271.8, then the point 6 would form near 270-265 levels.

If Point 4 at 263 is considered then point 6 would be formed well below 250.

Day Chart:

A good trading range between 278 - 291 and an EOD close above 200 DMA would warrant caution in Long positions.

NIFTY ANALYSIS

Nifty has made a low of 5306 today which is a long term monthly/weekly support. Holding 5300 - nifty might try to attempt a pause. But on break of 5300 - nifty would swiftly reach below 5100 levels in a weekly/ Monthly perspective. How long ot would hold 5300???? - Market only can give us the answer.

Monthly Charts:

  CHANNEL SUPPORT AT 5300 LEVELS. Break of 5300 - severe fall on cards.

Weekly Charts.:
A Wolfe Wave pattern is completed. Also Nifty at Channel Supports.

If any pause in downmove is to occur then 5300 must hold. Also 61.8% retracement for the rise from 4770 - 6229 is 5327. This being a golden ratio is likely to provide the pause required.

High Risk Aggressive Longs to be attempted with Stirct SL of 5290 - only based on channel support - which could be easily broken considering the nature of the fall.

TATAMOTORS AN ANALYSIS

Tatamotors is at a Make or Break Juncture. As per the weekly charts, there are two possibilities -  either  breakout above 303 which would give a huge run-up targetting 320++ or breakdown below 276 to intially 260 levels.

DAY chart:

 

Hour chart:

 

10 DMA	20 DMA	50 DMA	100 DMA	200 DMA
293.86	291.26	292.91	289.23	289.94

All Moving Averages are converging and currently TM has closed below all averages. An EOD close above 293 would warrant an upmove.

Synopsis: Positionally Sell below 291.5-293  with SL EOD close above 293. If EOD close is above 293-294 then Stop and Reverse with SL 288 below 200 DMA.

NIFTY at interesting JUNCTURE !!!!

NIfty is poised at an interesting juncture. The Current Month low of 5760 is a Long Term Support and any break of the levels 5760-20 wouldlead to a heavy downfall. Holding 5760-5720 levels is very very important if any upmove is to take place. Few Charts:

MONTH LOG CHART:

The Chart is Self - explanatory.